Concepts: System, Structure, and the Balance of Power A. System:
Concepts: System, Structure, and the Balance of Power A. System:
Poli Sci 142K Politics and Warfare
Spring 2015
Week 2, Monday, April 6th
I. Concepts: System, Structure, and the Balance of Power A. System: A delimited geographic region (like Europe, E. Asia, Western
Hemisphere) B. The Structure: The distribution of power in a given system
- Measured by the number of “units” (states) and their capabilities (measured by any given state’s population and economic resources) a. Capabilities should also include domestic commitment
- Structures can be stable or unstable, with instability more likely to generate war than stable systems
C. Stability: The absence of war (peace) and patterns of conflict that can be managed
D. The Balance of Power 1. The distribution of power across units in any system 2. Power is relative power (relative to allies and enemies) 3. A system can be ordered through hierarchy (a single center
of decision or hegemony) or anarchy a. Anarchy can be a stable order if adversaries check each
other through rough equivalence of power b. Example: alliance A=5, alliance B=5, 5=5 (Balance)
E. In Balance, order is spontaneous or self-‐enforcing 1. Every state has an incentive to stay at peace, because a war
choice is not a rational strategy a. Rational war choice = expected benefits of war >
(greater than) total costs b. In balance, costs exceed or just equal benefits (5=5)
- If 5=5, war would lead to likely stalemate or defeat for the attacking power
c. Thus, a stable balance (structure) is a self-‐enforcing peace
II. Concepts: Instability and the Causes of War A. An Unstable power balance is characterized by:
- A rising power that threatens one or more relatively static powers (Germany 1891-‐1914)
- A declining power is threatened by one or more state or rising powers (Austria-‐Hungary, 1914)
- An expanding power threatens the territory of one or more powers
- A rising power reaches the threshold of hegemony and threatens an entire system (objective threat)
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- 1-‐4 can trigger war B. Power rankings
- Major Powers – the top 25% of states measured by capabilities a. Only major powers can trigger a systemic war (1914,
1939) 2. Hegemonic Powers
a. Hegemony means pre-‐dominant power b. A hegemon cannot be defeated by a single major power,
but can be defeated by a coalition (alliance) c. Hegemonic powers thus objectively threaten all powers
in a system d. Potential hegemons are destabilizing powers – can
trigger war 3. Minor Powers – the residual after all major powers have
been counted a. The puzzle of major power-‐minor power wars
III. The Survival Threat, War and Buying Time A. A state that faces a survival threat may rationally choose war in order
to: 1. Buy time to create a new, advantageous balance of power 2. Eliminate the threat 3. Survival threat’s time horizon (1 to 5 years)
IV. War is therefore most likely when: A. Rising and declining major powers are in conflict B. A rising power has hegemonic potential C. A rising power chooses an expansionist strategy D. Types of conflict
- Historically specific (like France and Great Britain from 1660-‐1815)*
- Objective conflict a. Hegemonic potential (objectively threatens system)
V. War is least likely in: A. Hegemonic systems (Hegemons have an incentive to maintain peace,
but potential hegemons destabilize systems) B. Stable power balances C. Stable systems with no expansionist power (no war state; state with
first preference for war) D. Thus, major power wars, like WWI, are least-‐likely wars
* Contingent conflict Th is
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