The file P14_53.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions.
a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holt’s method with optimized smoothing constants.
b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.